Epidemic Peak for COVID-19 in India, 2020

Abstract

—In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and
thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member
of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough
and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death.
The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by
using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population
information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic
prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the
prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we
estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and
Infected I0 to 1.
The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze
the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread
of the epidemic.