Fluctuation and Forecasting of Thai Fresh Durian Export Price to China

Authors

  • Kesinee Muenthaisong , Chiraphon Hongsa , Teeraporn Leemanonwarachai , Unggoon Wongtragoon

Abstract

The objective of this research was to analyze the fluctuation of Thai fresh durian export
price and to find the appropriate model to forecast Thai fresh durian export price to China. The time series
and the Box-Jenkins method were used, with the secondary data on the monthly report for 13 years, from
January 2005 to December 2017, in total of 156 months. We applied seasonal decomposition techniques
by deconstructing 4 components: trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular components to analyse the price
fluctuation. In order to forecast Thai fresh durian export price, the optimal model was selected between
using the time series method and the Box-Jenkins method. The research found that Thai fresh durian
export price was seasonal. Moreover, the price fluctuation was caused by irregular component, not by
cyclical component. On the other hand, Thai fresh durian export price during the 13-year period are likely
to increase. The Box-Jenkins method provided the forecasting accuracy because the outcomes of MAD,
MSE and MAPE values equal to 3.1124, -2.7772 and 9.789%, respectively. The appropriate forecasting
model of the Box-Jenkins method was ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Published

2020-11-01

Issue

Section

Articles