Determination of Production Forecasting Method Using Naïve, Single Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing in Production Planning (Case Study: PT X Sparepart Automotive Manufacturing)

Abstract

The pattern of demand from consumers is one of the bases for planning in a company.
Determining the right demand by a company will help in planning the company to meet consumer needs.
The method used in determining the prediction of demand is using forecasting methods, because using
forecasting methods will help companies to minimize uncertainty about consumer demand patterns. PT X is
a company engaged in the production of automotive spare parts, which is currently having difficulty
predicting the needs of consumers. This study aims to provide recommendations for the use of forecasting
methods that are in accordance with existing data in company X. The methods used in this study are naïve
methods, moving averages, and exponential smoothing. The calculation process will use the pom qm
software. From the results of this study, it turns out that the method that can be recommended to be
implemented in company x is a naïve method with the smallest error value compared to the error results of
other forecasting methods.