Using the Average Weight Method to Solve the Problem of Ambiguity and Predict the Quantities of Iraq's Oil Exports

Abstract

Economies in developing countries are considered fragile economies that depend on unilateral revenues, whose revenues are from one source or contribute a large percentage to the state budget. Many countries depend in their budget on oil exported from their countries, including Iraq, which depends on exported oil as it constitutes Approximately 95% of the central budget revenues. The data was collected by SOMO Company, which is a government company affiliated with the Ministry of Oil that works to sell petroleum products produced by the oil fields according to international selling prices. The data was announced by the company and the data was suffering from Therefore, the ambiguity was treated using the center of gravity method, then the data for the years 2023 to 2025 was predicted by month using the general trend method, and it was concluded that there will be an increase in exported quantities, and work must be done to invest this increase in other sectors.